All year, every year, I do my best to keep track of what I predicted. This is so when the time comes to evaluate the old and write the new predictions, the task is easier. Despite this effort, reviewing my 2023 predictions is a grueling affair. It is a prediction bloodbath. To actually win this self-imposed game, I need less heart and more mind.

Hopefully my efforts here for the 2024 Big Three Predictions can adhere to this mantra.

For the (morbidly) curious, you can go back and read all my previous years' predictions—2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.

As well all know by now, the only rule I have set for myself in this little game is that everything written down must come true for the prediction to be counted as correct. I have really come to hate it, but that is just because I am apparently bad at my own game.

There is also the absurdist prediction, which is dubbed the Kiefer Prediction. This was all Peter Spezia's idea from Show Me Your News! and is inspired by the fact that 24's Jack Bauer, played by Kiefer Sutherland, is the voice of Venom Snake in Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain.

Before we see what new madness I've foreseen for 2024, let's look back at the crime scene that was my slate of 2023 predictions.

Nintendo 2023 Predictions

  1. Both the rumored Switch ports for Metroid Prime trilogy and the Zelda HD games will finally be released. ❌
  2. Game Boy or Gamecube will come to NSO. ✅
  3. A Kid Icarus game will soar onto Switch. ❌

No more double predictions. "And" is the killer of predictions.

We did get one third of the Metroid Prime trilogy in the form of Metroid Prime Remastered. I played it in the back half of the year for Season 7 of Chapter Select and I sure do hope we get the rest of the Prime games some day soon.

Now "or" is a good prediction word. "Or" saved me here. Nintendo kicked off the year with their February Direct and the news that Game Boy, Game Boy Color, and Game Boy Advance would be hitting NSO and its tiers. Yet another way to play Game Boy games on the big TV.

Who knows? I tried picking a lesser known IP to surprise here at the end of the Switch's expected life and then Nintendo goes and announces a Thousand-Year Door remaster and a Princess Peach solo game.

PlayStation 2023 Predictions

  1. Dreams comes to PS5, PS VR2, and PC. ❌
  2. Bloodborne is announced for PS5. ❌
  3. Resistance is revived as PS VR2 game. ❌

Dreams feels like a slam dunk “I guarantee it” kind of prediction. I’m shocked it hasn’t happened yet.

Only one other prediction this year was more wrong than my Dreams prediction. I'll talk about that later. What a total flub on Sony's part.

I decided to believe with the FromSoft fans and we were all disappointed.

We aren't going to be seeing Resistance, at least from Insomniac, for a very, very long time. Probably never.

Xbox 2023 Predictions

  1. Game Pass has a price increase. ✅
  2. Starfield launches in the summer. ✅
  3. We FINALLY see Perfect Dark. ❌

Funny enough, I did the best with Xbox this year. It is the company with the least of my heart. Maybe we are seeing a bit of the mantra come into action here.

Game Pass continues to stay flat, but prices had to go up. A dollar is a dollar.

I'm going by the astronomical season for Starfield. It only makes sense, right? I need the win, guys.

I give up on Perfect Dark. Heck, maybe Microsoft has too. At least we are seeing Indiana Jones later today.

Kiefer Prediction:

Both the Factions multiplayer game andThe Last of Us Part II launch on PC, with Factions launching day-and-date with the PS5 version. Factions will have both a free-to-play element and a physical version (for PS5). There will be a season pass. The main narrative of Factions will be 20+ hours of game play.

I still think this was going to come true. Until some make or break goals on return and engagement came down the pipeline. I've written all about this cancellation. I think my speculation is sound in my "The Year of The Last of Us" In Review piece, but if my annual predictions are anything to go by, maybe don't trust my speculation as gospel. What a shame.

The final score is, shockingly, better than last year by one point. The "or" saved me. Here's to hopping that I can beat 3 out of 10 by more than one point this year.

Nintendo 2024 Predictions

  1. The next Mario Kart game is announced alongside the next Nintendo console.
  2. Metroid Prime 4 is a cross-generational title.
  3. Donkey Kong gets a new game.

The rumor mill is spinning and everyone, including GameShark, says the Switch 2, Super Switch, etc. is this year. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, which launched a month after the Switch, is the best selling game on the platform at 57+ million units. I find it hard to imagine that the next Mario Kart game won't be as close to the launch of the new system as possible.

It's time, right? It has been almost four years since the announcement that Retro was restarting development, and almost six years since the original announcement. Leaning into the impending announcement of the "Super Switch," I think a space shooter game could show off the technical prowess Nintendo is aiming for, whatever that prowess may be. Metroid is selling well thanks to the Switch, Metroid Dread, and the aforementioned Metroid Prime Remastered.

In line with the Super Mario Bros. Movie, Nintendo has or is publishing a new game for all the main stars of the film. There was Super Mario Bros. Wonder last year. There is the HD port of Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon and the brand new Princess Peach: Showtime!. Everyone's favorite ape needs the love too. And don't tell me Mario vs. Donkey Kong counts.

PlayStation 2024 Predictions

  1. PlayStation 5 Pro costs at least $599.99. Everyone has PTSD.
  2. There is no more than one first-party PS VR2 title.
  3. Sony takes over the board at Bungie.

rubs hands Cynical Max has appeared! I feel like the heavily rumored PS5 Pro follows trend of last gen and costs $100 more than the base console. Perhaps it will cost more (hence the "at least") given that the PS5 cost did not go down with the slim redesign. I just really want it to be $599.99 for the memes.

Thank God Sony is at least writing fat checks to Capcom for them to make PS VR2 games. Sheesh. I wager Resident Evil 9 gets the PS VR2 treatment too. I left room for one first-party game though. I suspect Team Asobi's next game will support PS VR2 at the least.

I imagine the takeover will go a little something like this.

Xbox 2024 Predictions

  1. Xbox Game Studios (and Bethesda) releases in 2024 will have an average score of 85 on Metacritic.
  2. Phil Spencer's desk/shelves tease/reveal Xbox hardware.
  3. Three major titles break Series S and X parity.

Your boy did math for Xbox.

Using the Wikipedia "List of Xbox Game Studios video games" and the same for Bethesda, I tallied up all the Metacritic scores for 2023 releases on Xbox hardware.1 That average score was 79.8 (or 71.8 if you count the N/A for Killer Instinct: Anniversary Edition). It felt a bit cheap to throw in GhostWire or Quake II, but they count as releases. Plus, Xbox needed the help after including Redfall.

But this is a positive prediction. I'm believing in Xbox's releases for the year between Hellblade, Avowed, Indiana Jones, and whatever we don't know about.

Instead of teasing tee shirts, I'm banking on a Teams call showing off something.

Baldur's Gate 3 has paved the way for devs to drop features and parity. The tiny domino has fallen. I wonder how long it will take for one of Xbox's own games to break the connection between the two consoles.

Kept you waiting, huh? It’s time for my Kiefer-level prediction!

Kiefer Prediction:

2024 is a renaissance year for the 3D character platformer, with the Big Three all revealing titles with classic characters in this genre.

I abstained from outright naming the "classic characters" in the prediction, but it is hard not to imagine who would reenter the limelight. Phil hears the Banjo-Kazooie fans. Donkey Kong's glorious 3D return has been rumored on and off for years. It's hard not to imagine Astro Bot not being a 3D platformer.

I'd love to see Sly. We all know that Ratchet & Clank is years away. Mario could make his return for the Super Switch. It just feels like a 3D mascot year, which is in direct opposition to the mantra, but I think it makes logical sense too. An announcement is easier to bank on than a release. I could see Xbox revealing a game years in advance. Team Asobi and Nintendo are more likely to release this year, since it's been four and seven years, respectively, since their last 3D-focused titles.

And that's all I got for 2024's annual Big Three predictions! May the math be ever in my favor. It's time for a dub. I could use one.

Footnotes

  1. If you wanted to check the individual scores. 2345678910 ↩

  2. Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition - 84 ↩

  3. Age of Empires IV - 81 ↩

  4. GhostWire: Tokyo - 82 ↩

  5. Hi-Fi Rush - 87 ↩

  6. Killer Instinct: Anniversary Edition - N/A ↩

  7. Minecraft Legends - 71 ↩

  8. Quake II (Remastered) - 90 ↩

  9. Redfall - 56 ↩

  10. Starfield - 83 ↩